wrong again...

fifty percent chance of rain. doesn't mean that there's a fifty percent chance it will, it means that on fifty percent of the days that conditions were like this, it rained. i'm not too sure about the distinction, but it seems to me that it removes the looking forward part of the forecast. makes it seem like all meteorologists do is look to the past to make their "predictions". they may as well use a magic 8 ball.

anyhow, after a winter of predicted snows that never came, i guess i shouldn't be surprised that the predicted rainy nasty weekend we were supposed to have never came. yesterday, i got up with the rooster's call to climb some rocks. it turned into a six-mile hike with a crash pad on, peppered with some bouldering. 80s, blue skies, no rains until after the baseball game last night. it was supposed to hit mid-afternoon.

radar this morning looked no better, but i wanted to see that trail without a twin mattress strapped to my back. scenery was beautiful, and i had the time to stop and enjoy the view (and me without my camera!). today was overcast, cooler temps, less fellow hikers. the trail had dried out in some places and muddied up in others. three points of contact scrambling. rock-hopping on the high banks of the potomac canal. i want to make a point of hitting this trail at least once a month from now on. it's good for the soul.