Wednesday, June 11, 2008

elections don't matter

turns out this onion video has a bit of truth to it.

Diebold Accidentally Leaks Results Of 2008 Election Early

the difference is, in the interest of satire, the onion says mccain will win because he was picked by the same people that pick all the presidents. can anyone say skull and bones?

anyhow, last night i went to an academic talk by uf professor dr. stephen craig. he's a wicked smart political scientist, and in a town like d.c., i'd think it'd be a little intimidating to speak to people who are all pretty knowledgeable about national politics. osmosis is interesting. his talk was about political campaigns and whether or not they actually matter. he laid out the conditions for this year's election. according to allan lichtman, there are 13 conditions that predict before the election that a given party will win. zero to five false, incumbent party wins. six to thirteen false, challenging party wins. they've retroactively applied these conditions to past elections, and it's been accurate in every single one back to 1860!

this year's gonna be close. if they're wrong, consider political science's name changed to "political hunchery" (dr. craig's wording) from here on out. go look at the list, and see what you think they're all predicting. lichtman used his list in november and came to the onion's conclusion, but the political landscape, ever shifting, isn't quite the same.


You had me at Merlot. said...

I couldn't get the video to work. :(

Mr. J said...

go to and look through the video links for "diebold accidentally leaks results of 2008 election early". it's hil-aaaarious.